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Sunday, July 08, 2007

For balance

To balance the utter tripe that was foist on the gullible during "Live Earth" the Gorse Fox would request that you read this article. As usual Steve McIntyre has been thorough, and exposed the reality of the IPCC report on Climate Change as reported in an Australian paper. Some select quotes:
Much research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful. Rather, policies should be based on forecasts from scientific forecasting methods. We assessed the extent to which long-term forecasts of global average temperatures have been derived using evidence-based forecasting methods. We asked scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change to tell us which scientific articles presented the most credible forecasts. Most of the responses we received (30 out of 51) listed the IPCC Report as the best source. Given that the Report was commissioned at an enormous cost in order to provide policy recommendations to governments, the response should be reassuring. It is not. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they present the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. We found no references to the primary sources of information on forecasting despite the fact these are easily available in books, articles, and websites. We conducted an audit of Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of the total of 140 principles. The forecasting procedures that were used violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

and
Carter, et al. (2006) examined the Stern Review (Stern 2007). They concluded that the Report authors made predictions without any reference to scientific forecasting.
If you actually want to be informed, as opposed to misinformed by government and media hype, read the full paper at http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Public_Policy/WarmAudit31.pdf and you should also read Climate Audit.

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